Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 30.049652 33.556029 37.606786 42.709351 49.081760 56.947508 67.683858
2025-03-30 25.024931 29.367823 34.853550 42.554526 53.582471 69.759784 97.645106
2025-04-06 21.495003 26.053906 32.168995 41.451680 56.259147 81.573704 137.397348
2025-04-13 20.003062 25.009587 32.135065 43.873887 65.040609 109.091752 253.649437
2025-04-20 18.180664 23.170133 30.541752 43.363087 68.595587 130.164294 441.346770
2025-04-27 16.931809 21.952685 29.628450 43.684588 73.903147 162.264187 1101.252416
2025-05-04 15.956090 20.999989 28.947699 44.206341 79.963105 207.892913 11902.828123
2025-05-11 15.072865 20.077989 28.161316 44.309406 85.167255 265.023851 NaN
2025-05-18 14.202635 19.084198 27.111085 43.630631 88.023774 323.682052 NaN
2025-05-25 13.572681 18.412265 26.529825 43.807028 93.665769 436.734638 NaN
2025-06-01 12.951931 17.699948 25.788216 43.470124 97.620528 581.074122 NaN
2025-06-08 12.373554 17.011873 25.014952 42.908664 100.627993 779.575805 NaN
2025-06-15 11.842830 16.375567 24.292435 42.383434 103.864748 1126.109565 NaN
2025-06-22 11.386627 15.835087 23.700731 42.079817 108.099092 1909.717737 NaN
2025-06-29 10.880978 15.179370 22.831183 40.934029 108.064418 2816.829810 NaN
2025-07-06 10.775381 15.201822 23.276294 43.274530 127.226896 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.401501 14.732041 22.699807 42.762133 131.079521 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.131394 14.429004 22.433082 43.070366 140.617674 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.897659 14.176309 22.245961 43.577266 152.677512 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.646798 13.878564 21.939343 43.676735 162.499960 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.353626 13.489722 21.411523 43.013475 165.736761 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.142741 13.240548 21.162768 43.185504 177.258249 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 8.908520 12.937592 20.776420 42.856422 184.088512 NaN NaN